FROM late January, Donald Trump will have all the authority of the American executive, and the support of a unified Republican Congress, behind him. He will, therefore, be in a position to deliver profound and lasting change. The near-term economic effect of a Trump presidency is perhaps not of foremost concern to vulnerable racial and religious minorities in America, or to nervous Nato allies in ...
LIBERAL democracies, while not exactly on the brink of a descent into fascism, are facing a period of crisis. Tomorrow, when Americans go to the polls, one of the major-party candidates will be a man whose campaign has dispensed with the notion that its talking points should bear any resemblance to truth, and who has routinely promised to take measures in office which would violate the spirit or l...
With the Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates in December, my colleague R.A. argues that:Fed members argue that they are choosing to raise rates now, before inflation has returned to target, so that inflation will not jump above 2%, forcing them to raise rates in a much more rapid manner. If the choice is between above target inflation and a recession, the Fed will take the latter. They are...
OVER the weekend, rumours flew that Mark Carney, the dashing Canadian at the helm of the Bank of England, might leave his job in 2018. (He initially promised to serve for five years, but a full term is eight, and many Britons hoped he would stay on.) An early exit for Mr Carney, who has been on the job since 2013, would be understandable. While Canada is the world’s great liberal icon, Britain is ...
DON'T look now, but after years of lingering on the brink of (or in) deflation, rich economies are heading in a different direction. Inflation is rising, and a handful of economy watchers are worrying that accelerating price increases could "rattle global markets", as Mike Bird of the Wall Street Journal writes:Rich-country government-bond prices tumbled Thursday, sending yields up on both sides o...
A POPULAR idea is floating around certain circles: that you do not need a deep trade deal with the EU in order to trade with them in a significant way. For instance, Guido Fawkes, a blog, points out that each year China trades with the EU to the value of half a trillion dollars.
IT IS an accepted fact that Ukraine suffers from a high level of "capital flight". The term refers to a process by which people pull money out of a country and buy foreign assets instead. Ukraine is highly corrupt. If you make money in Ukraine, you often want to get it out of there, lest someone else steal it from you.
I HAVE not yet had an opportunity to read Sebastian Mallaby’s new biography of Alan Greenspan (pictured), The Man Who Knew. I have heard great things about it; you can read Martin Wolf’s review of the book in The Economist here.
IT HAS been a long time since the economy really worked well for most American workers. Those without a college degree have found themselves losing relative economic ground since the early 1980s, and nearly all workers have had a rough time of things—facing stagnant pay, for example—since the beginning of this century.
IT WAS just a few months into the presidency of Barack Obama that America crept out of the Great Recession and into the current expansion. With just three months to go in his second term, Mr Obama seems likely to pass that expansion on to his successor.
HERE is a funny little story about the history of economics. John Maynard Keynes called his landmark economics text "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". The "general theory" in the title was doing double duty.
An EU tax ruling held that Apple owes Ireland more than €13 billion; why is the Irish government likely to reject the windfall? Host Anne McElvoy is joined by Matthew Valencia to explain. And, Ryan Avent digs deep into work, status and technological disruption.
LARRY SUMMERS is right; this year's Fed symposium in Jackson Hole was triply disappointing. In the weeks before the gathering, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publicly discussed their worries that the current monetary framework might leave the Fed unable to deal adequately with future slowdowns.
THE headline on this piece overpromises. I don't know how exactly to flip a low-trust society to a high-trust state. No one does, sadly. The question is one of the most important in economics, however. Poor societies are mostly poor because of a lack of trust.
THE big debates in macroeconomics have never been polite. I suppose it's understandable that this is the case; after all, the stakes are high. Tyler Cowen excerpts a new blog post by Scott Sumner, which reads: …what’s happened since 2009 involves not just one, but at least five new types of voodoo: 1.
FACING a difficult decision? Toss a coin. It will change your life. This is the message from a new working paper, by Steven Levitt of the University of Chicago (the Freakonomist), which suggests people are too cautious for their own good.
OFFICIALS at the Federal Reserve, a few of them anyway, seem to be rethinking their views of the economy in some dramatic ways. In a new blog post, however, Ben Bernanke suggests that Fed watchers shouldn't overstate the radicalism of the intellectual evolution within the Fed.
Buttonwood columnist Philip Coggan hosts as Callum Williams explains how the Bank of England is trying to stimulate lending. Adam Roberts checks in on the health of Silvio Berlusconi's business empire. And, US data journalist Wade Zhou investigates the costs of Donald Trump's proposed border wall with Mexico
IT IS morning in America as, according to the newest figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics, the economy added 255,000 new jobs in July, after a red hot June in which payrolls rose by 292,000.
THIS week, Democrats are meeting in Philadelphia to nominate Hillary Clinton as their candidate for the presidency. In between the speeches, party business, musical acts and other convention agenda items, the party has been airing short, funny little videos, starring former members of Barack Obama's economic team.
Finance editor Edward McBride is joined by Simon Rabinovitch, who has delved into the history of coups to find out how attempts to overthrow a government can disrupt economic growth. And, an investigation into why the banking systems of some of Africa's largest economies are lurching towards crisis
ECONOMISTS have two contradictory impulses when analysing policy. The first is to ignore its effects on the distribution of income or wealth, and argue that policymakers should shoot for efficiency and worry about redistribution later. This instinct often surfaces in discussion of policies like carbon taxes.
WHAT should the new chancellor, Philip Hammond, do? Some sort of fiscal boost seems likely in light of Britain's slowing economy. Much of the talk has been about infrastructure: Stephen Crabb, who challenged Thereas May for the prime-ministership, proposed a £100 billion to fund it.
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Edward McBride, Finance editor, investigates how badly leaving the EU might hurt the British economy, and what can be done to limit the damage. Also, Natasha Loder explains how Theranos left investors in the lurch, and we hear why some European firms are rushing to build expensive new headquarters.
SINCE Britain’s referendum on June 23rd, journalists and economists have spent much time gawping at the awful financial fallout. However, Brexiteers have jumped on anyone whom they think is exaggerating the economic impact of the decision to Leave (just read the comments on any of our articles).
A WEEK ago, as news of the vote in favour of Brexit sunk in, global markets tumbled. In the space of two days, the S&P 500 dropped more than 4%, while Britain’s FTSE 250 fell about 10%. But then, strikingly, equity prices reversed themselves. The S&P 500 is now higher than it was before the vote.
A PROBLEM facing economists is that it won’t be possible to assess the macroeconomic impact of the Brexit vote for quite some time. The official estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter of this year will not be published until late October.
Edward McBride brings in business affairs editor Andrew Palmer to reflect on the ever growing pay packets of company bosses.
FOUR times a year the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed board that sets monetary policy, concludes with a special flourish: a press conference, and the publication of the members' economic projections. The latter includes a "dot plot" which shows how members think rates will unfold over the next few years.
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